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Lessors for Ilyushin Il-96
Original text ("on word of honor and Rosreserve") in Russian was published on 14 February 2017.

Thursday February 16, 2017 19:21 MSK / Elizabeth Kuznetsova, the Kommersant daily newspaper.
The Russian government is searching for solutions to restart production of the Ilyushin Il-96 wide-body long-haul jetliner, Moscow-based Kommersant daily newspaper writes. Ministries supervising large projects involving local manufacture are asked to come up with a timetable giving exact dates when imported aircraft can be withdrawn from active service and replaced by local substitutes.

The government is going to fund an initial order for six Il-96-400Ms worth in excess of Rouble 40 billion. This portion of budgetary money will go to the industry through a yet-to-be-selected leasing arm. Leading contenders are Voronezh-based Ilyushin Finance Co. (IFC) and the State Transport Leasing Company (Russian accronym GTLK) in Moscow. Since top civil servants are aware of the Il-96's fuel consumption, they are propose to make use of jet fuel storages that dedicated government organization - Rosrezerv - is keeping for cases of emergency.

The Ministry for industry and trade, Ministry of Defense and the United Aircraft Corporation have drafted proposals on deep modernization of the Il-96-400M, according to the Kommersant newspaper. Under the recent decision by President Vladimir Putin, the Kremlin grants Rouble 17.2 billion in 2017-2019 timeframe for respective engineering efforts. To cut costs and reduce lead time, earlier built Il-96-400T freighters can be used as experimental prototypes. Besides, the ministries involved are asked to come up - by February 20 - with the abovementioned timetable setting dates for planned withdrawal of imported widebody jets that can be replaced by newly assembled Il-96-400Ms. However, none of the government agencies responded to Kommersant's call to disclose these date and other details.

Serial production of the original Il-96 quad commenced in 1987 at the VASO plant in Voronezh. The Il-96-300  - an initial version - can transport 330 passengers 13.5 thousand kilometers. The Il-96-400 stretch features more powerful Aviadvigatel PS-90A-1 turbofans and higher payload. Minister for industry and trade Denis Manturov told journalists in May 2016 that projects to restart production of the Il-114 64-seat turboprop and Il-96-400 widebody jet were going to be granted budgetary funding, Rouble 50 billion for each.

Aeroflot used to be the largest Il-96-300 operator. The Russian flag carrier withdrew its last sixth aircraft of the type in 2014. Today, the Il-96-300 remains in service with Cubana de Aviacion and the Special Air Detachment serving members in the Russian government. According to the Kommersant newspaper sources, the ministries for industry and trade, finance, economic development, as well as the civil aviation authority (Rosaviatsiya) and the United Aircraft Corporation, are going to jointly select a local lessor that would accept budgetary injection in its base capital for a project involving six Il-96-400Ms. These airplanes shall be acquired new from the factory and placed with airlines on lease terms. Since one airframe is expected to cost Rouble 7 billion, the abovementioned injection is estimated at Rouble 40 billion.

IFC is likely to be the front-runner in the ongoing competition. It has a history of successful placements of Russian-made jetliners with several airlines operating both in Russia and abroad. For instance, IFC has been leasing Tupolev Tu-204/214 narrowbody twinjets to Red Wings. This carrier is largely viewed as the front-runner in ongoing competitions between airlines for rights to serve popular tourist destinations.

Speaking to the Kommersant Newspaper, IFC general manager Alexander Roubtsov said that this company has long been "a rather active participant" in the Il-96 effort. The lessor has funded manufacture of 13 such jets and placed them with various commercial and governmental customers. IFC is working with Ilyushin design house and "ODK Perm Motors" engine manufacturer so as to make the renewed aircraft  "more appealing to the passengers and more economically effective".

Even though IFC is widely considered a favorite candidate to undertake the aforementioned leasing project, the company prepares to face stiff competition from other bidders. "Final choice is for the government to make, and its decision should take into account the specifics of the given aircraft type and the low production rates", Roubtsov said.

Another candidate under consideration - GTLK - was mentioned by the United Aircraft Corporation in January this year in the intended role of "a potential customer for serial Il-96-400Ms". That time plans were being made to enlarge the lessor's base capital by Rouble 42 billion through budgetary injections. These would come from the grand total of Rouble 53.4 billion that the Kremlin was ready to invest in the Il-96 effort in the 2016-2023 timeframe.

Sources close to Aeroflot reveal that the airline is going to depart with all 22 Airbus A330-200/300s and four out of fifteen Boeing 777-300ER long-haul widebody jets by 2025 (as valid agreements on their operational lease expire). However, the Russian flag-carrier has no plans to take the Il-96-400M instead. In part, this is explained by an insufficient number of such aircraft that the local industry is able to produce over the given timeframe. These sources also believe that the type will have a limited availability to commercial airlines since the priority to acquire such jets is given to "the government bodies that have a requirement in this sort of aircraft". Besides, Aeroflot has already ordered a number of newly-built jetliners, and these are meant to replace in-service airplanes earmarked for withdrawal, starting in 2019.

There is a firm opinion within the airline industry that four-engine transports are less fuel efficient than similarly sized twinjets. Such a viewpoint is endorsed by more than twenty years of operational experience on the Il-96-300. This version comes with four PS-90A turbofans from Aviadvigatel/Perm Motors. Apparently aware of the airline opinion, the Kremlin asked ministries and Rosrezerv to come up with their proposals on quotas for the jet-fuel kept in government-controlled storage reservoirs so as "to support flight operations" of the Il-96-400M, according to Kommersant sources.

Vladimir Karnozov, an expert with Aviation Explorer news outlet, says that Ilyushin needs to focus on two major issues with the Il-96 modernization. "First, it is necessary for the design house to engineer a modern passenger cabin for the stretched version. Second, the aircraft developer should make provision for easy replacement of the current-production PS-90A motor with the more advanced PD-14 being flight-tested or the PD-35 whose development is about to commence". Equipping the reworked Il-96 with the PS-90A turbofan developed in the 1980s "does not have much sense, especially in the new of the much more modern PD-14 already in the flight tests", he adds.

The expert further says that those who choose between lessors should pay close attention to the history of sales the suitable bidders have made so far. Placing Russian-made aircraft with domestic and international carriers and helping them keep their assets operational is a rare, much-need skill. Here, IFC has an advantage through the successful project on placing four Il-96-300s with the Cuban carrier. In its turn, GTLK has been narrowly focusing on domestic airlines, and leaving fleet airworthiness issues completely to them. At the same time, the Moscow lessor has enjoyed an easier access to the state treasury.