A struggle for many-billioned contract on delivery of multi-role fighters to Indian air forces is becoming aggravated. America makes the strong moves, Europe strengthens the lobbyistic potential and Russia is likely to drop out of this contest.

Indian tender MMRCA (Medium Multi-Role Combat Aircraft) aimed at identifying the jet to replace outdated MiG-21 is still staying in the limelight of aviation experts. According to the latest intelligence, Deli may make its final choice by mid-year. The bets are rising.

More than $9 billion is reserved for acquisition of 126 jets by the Indian Ministry of Defense. Half of these funds is fixed by an offset agreement: it is referred to the contracts which must be performed in India and by Indian enterprises. It is a novelty; usually Deli does not increase the offset part higher than 30%. Looks like India has decided to hit the jackpot in technological transfer, assuming that it would be easier to persuade the manufacturers on localization of modern components production when talking about such a scope of delivery.

Six jets are claiming to reserve a seat in the fleet of Indian air force: American F-16IN Viper (Lockheed Martin) and F/A-18E/F Super Hornet (Boeing), pan-European Eurofighter Typhoon, distressful French Dassault Rafale, permanent participant of all the tenders Swedish JAS-39NG Gripen (Saab), Russian MiG-35, demonstrated on Aero India 2007 and MAKS.
What is the state of affairs of every participant before the crucial dash?

Multivalued Europe

Let's start with common things. "Rafale" traditionally seems to be an outsider. And it is not about overcharge (for example, Typhoon's price is much higher) it is about much more common reasons. Military-technical co-operation between France and foreign countries is developing badly; in particular, Rafale has come in nowhere on several international tenders. For example a serious misfortune has overshadowed Rafale in Brazil on F-X2 tender, when new president of the republic has reloaded' the tender and made the final choice in Boeing's favor. Something is obviously wrong with French arms traffic and these problems cannot be solved by Dassault.

Rafale's prospects are not impressive. According to sources, close to the tender, Rafale has been charged off the tender, but Indian officials remain speechless in this respect. Even wide technological transfer package does not make the situation better; Paris has promised Deli new RBE-2AA radar with active phased antenna array which has not been delivered yet even to French air forces, and full package of radar's program codes.

French treatment of offset clauses also does not help: Dassault has promised to equip Rafale with Indian engine GTX-35VS Kaveri in order to decrease operational costs using unification with Tejas fighter project. It is hard to say what the actual Indian reaction was. Possibly they did not like the proposal assuming quite low operational characteristics of their engine.

Gripen is also very exotic for the Indian market. It is quiet cheap and Sweden has offered a wide package of aircraft furnishings including radar with active phased antenna array. It is interesting that this jet's NG version uses the same General Electric F414 engine as American Hornet. It is known that India is considering equipping Tejas with this engine, until Kaveri will be brought to operating status. As against Rafale, the Swedish fighter has come off with flying colours several times this year. In particular it has been sold to the Eastern Europe countries - Czech Republic and Hungaria (to replace MiG-29s) and also to Republic of South Africa and Thailand.

At the same time, the Swedish proposal is connected with a lot of problems. Gripen's prospects as a platform passed into service for about 30 years seem very uncertain as well as prospect of its modernization during this period of time. The jet has good aircraft furnishings, but the modern equipment promised by Sweden is currently being developed while the French equipment is almost ready to be passed into service. Some say that Gripen does not have enough range. The fact that India is not familiar with Swedish vehicles is also against Saab. In addition, specialists say that Stockholm does not have enough political heft and Deli is willing to gain some geopolitical benefits from the military-technical cooperation with foreign countries.

Eurofighter Typhoon - pan-Europen fighter, the result of very long development, but anyway it seems quite competitive. It is a good jet with excellent avionics and its manufacturers have already signed contracts with Austria and Saudi Arabia on delivery of 87 jets. Gulf States, Japan and Greece are also taking interest in Typhoons.

Implementation of offset agreement will likely be organized with maximum craft: the question of Hawk trainers' assembly in India has been considered for a long time in accordance with BAE order, one of fighter's developers. However, this area is having some problems at the moment.

There are also some disadvantages of choosing this fighter. First of all, Typhoon is the tender's most expensive jet. Secondly, the jet is extremely well equipped for striking ground targets but it has problems with radar operating availability. Thirdly, political benefits from cooperation with a lot of isolated companies are not so clear as in case of firm contract with a single manufacturer supported by the power of its national government (like Rafale, MiG or American jets).

Anyway, looks like Eurofighter is shooting ahead in the struggle for place inside Indian air force. "According to the latest information, Typhoon is the main favorite of the tender, - said deputy director of Center for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies, Konstantin Makienko. - However, things are changing very fast in India ".

I must admit that "diversification" is the All-father for Indian military. They acquire different equipment and prefer to have a maximum number of different technical solutions in the inventory, thus the platforms of tanks or jets are more like international zoo from time to time. In this respect the acquisition of Eurofighter will fit the Indian policy since it is taking a list to the Russian side.

A jump in the last carriage

After the final lifting of sanctions from India in the area of arms delivery, Russia has seen a dangerous rival. American MIC attracted by a great potential of Indian market will do its best to have the largest part of this pie.
USA offers two jets in the network of MMRCA tender. F-16IN Viper is also known as F-16 block 70. It is the further modification of F-16E block 60 Desert Falcon, delivered to UAE and equipped in accordance with requirements presented for striking multi-role aircraft. F-16 is well-known all over the world and the jet's most modern version equipped for striking ground targets is offered at the tender.

The jet's karma however is spoiled by Lockheed's connections with Pakistan, which have already been using F-16 for some time. Lockheed's positions are also assessed as weak in the area of the Offset agreement implementation.

The second American fighter seems to have greater chances. Boeing has initially offered F/A-18E/F Super Hornet for the tender. It is equipped with AN/APG-79 radar having an active phase antenna array, which has sparked interest among Indian military. It has no problems with decking requirements. The agreement on localization of F414 engines production is also a factor in jet's favor. These engines are intended for Tejas. However, this production can be used for the offset agreement implementation in the network of Super Hornet deliveries, if the Indians will choose this jet.

At Aero India 2011 air show, which has taken part in Bangalore in February, Boeing has demonstrated a new modernization package - Silent Hornet. It is reported that the fighter has been equipped with reduced radar signature elements, conforming fuel tanks and internal armament compartment and new avionics.

As we may see, this package will be presented at Indian tender and likely it will be the second favorite on MMRCA. Konstantin Makienko belives that Super Hornet in its "silent" version is the only American offer that makes sense. And it will struggle with Typhoon for the first place. According to the expert's opinion, F-16 has no chances as a platform.

A draw in the extra-time

And what about Russian vehicle? Russian success on the Indian market is traditionally connected with Sukhoi design bureau and it is a strong debut for Mikoyan during post-Soviet era. Of course India has acquired MiG-29Ks before but these contracts are not very significant compared to the deliveries of Su-30 MKI. In addition, funds from such contract will significantly improve the financial situation of MiG.

One of this offer's advantages is an onboard electronics: the jets will be equipped with Zhuk-AE radar with active phased antenna array. There are also good prospects regarding an offset agreement: the production of parts for RD-33 has already been established in India, thus it will be easy to use it for production of parts for RD-33MK engines installed on MiG-35. The fighter also has excellent maneuvering performance. The Indian air forces are familiar with MiG's fighters since they have been operating MiG-29Ks, MiG-27s and Mig-21s. The price is also a positive factor since MiG-35 is the tender's cheapest vehicle.

A great number of our jets acquired by India becomes a disadvantage in this case, especially after the barrier between India and USA has fallen. Deli prefers to operate different jets delivered by different manufacturers rather than use a limited number of models in its fleet.

Absence of MiG-35 at Aero India 2011 has also become a disadvantage and have sparked rumors about MiG fighter dropping out of the tender. According to the sources close to the industry, hardly anybody is still believing in MiG-35's prospects in India.

There's nowhere to step back

This situation reminds us of problems connected with MiG-35s production. The planned acquisition of MiG-35 by Russian air force won't mitigate the Indian misfortune (in fact it will likely complicate things because of production costs. It is unlikely that MiG will get a contract of such scope in the near future. The only way is to offer modernization of the existing jets along with deliveries of the new ones to all the operators of MiG's. I must admit that it is a slow and labor-consuming process.

The fourth-generation platforms' era is coming to its end. Possibly, the Indian tender and Brazilian F-X2 are the last ones for such fighters. The market of fifth-generation foreign systems lies ahead and American F-35 has very good chances there, however, this jet has not been finished yet and it have arisen a lot of questions connected with enormous cost of its development.

An export version for the Russian PAK FA program has also been specified. A framework agreement has been signed with India regarding delivery of 250 heavy fighters in the network of FGFA project. These jets will be manufactured in cooperation between India and Russia on the basis of T-50.

The Americans has already claimed both markets (F-22 and F-35), and Russia has only presented next-generation heavy platform, but with an export potential (we remind that USA do not sell its F-22). A place for next-generation light fighter in Russian air force is still vacant.

MiG's experience in development of light tactical fighters must be used for solving this problem. MiG has all the capabilities to start next-generation light fighter's development and its export platform. In other words, the rival for F-35, which feels lonely without any competitors at the future market of modern multi-role aviation systems. In this case, the failure at Indian tender may by a positive factor since MiG surely has nowhere to step back.