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Airbus: Market forecast for Russia & CIS over the next 20 years
Wednesday July 26, 2017 14:56 MSK / Russian Aviation
Airbus Executive Vice-President Sales Christopher Buckley held a press conference at MAKS-2017 on the new market forecast for Russia & CIS over the next 20 years.
Christopher Buckley
Airbus Executive Vice President, Europe, Africa and Asia-Pacific.

Good morning, everybody! On behalf of Airbus thanks for coming to our press-conference this morning.

I am going to run you all through the latest news from Airbus and some of our prospectives in Russia as well. I think, first of all, Airbus is in a very good shape as you can see from the chart over there, sold now over 17 000 aircrafts. We delivered over 10 000. And I think what’s very healthy for us as a company is the enormous quantity of aircrafts that we have and yet delivered. As you can see over 6 700 aircrafts are still to be delivered to the airlines around the world.

In terms of our presence in Russia, even compared with 2 years ago when I was last here, we have now crossed the point of 300 aircrafts operating in Russia. Our market share in Russian market is going a little bit above the half, above 50%. So, I think we are in good shape. Russia remains extremely important for us as a market place. And as you can see in terms of airline operators now we are up to 10 different airlines. And I will be speaking about them just in a second.

We are pleased to welcome Red Wings as a brand new Airbus operator now flying A320 and A321. We had two A330 operators before in Russia, we’ve now increased up to four. We are very proud with VIM-Avia, Nordwind to our A330 customer base in the country. So both of those airlines started flying A330s mainly on tourist routes this year.

I’ve been asked a few times in a couple of days how do we see our perspectives in the market in Russia, where do we think Airbus is going and what are we hoping to achieve. I think in the air transport market in the world’s economies, the way politics goes as well, we always had ups and downs. What is important the history has shown us that Airbus firmly believes that every 15 years the air traffic market is doubling. So, the growth will continue. We see some of our pro visions over here in Russia. We have continued growth in the years ahead. And I think what also important is what we call a difficult word «propensity for travel», like how are you all travelling, how often do you travel, is happening to grow. At the moment, in Russia one of two in the population usually does one trip a year. Now we can forecast and see how that’s going to change over the next 20 years. We will see that about 20 years from now you will be travelling firmly, each Russian here in the country 1.2 times per year. So, overall a year each person will have trips somewhere. Ladies and gentlemen, what does it mean? It means a stager growth that we see of 140% in demand of travellers in this country.

So I think also we are going to announce our global market forecast looks at different areas around the world and we see continued growth here in Russia and in CIS as well. Probably, average in about 4.2% per year and that actually is quite a significant number. Where does this all lead to for us aircraft manufacturers? Our pro visions are, in total over the next 20 years for Russia and CIS, probably a total of 1 200 new aircrafts will be required. I’ll tell you, it’s not on the chart, that  probably about a 1 000 of aircrafts are going to be required for Russian market alone. Also this is important to know, we have good percentage of long-range wide-body aircrafts in there and our pro visions are about 173 new aircrafts of the size of the A350 alone, that you’ve all seen standing here in Zhukovsky right now, and about 25 very large aircrafts like the A380. We still see the market for that aircraft in Russia. And the others will be in size of the A320 family.

I’ll talk a few words about the product line now. I’ll start with the A320 family and then we’re going to A330, A350 and then finish up with the A380. We are very proud with what we’ve accomplished in the A320 family. I think, as you all know and you can see in the chart, we have many of them flying here in Russia. A320 has become the airforce of the airline business here in Russia. So far we’ve sold over 13 000 alone and we delivered close to 8 000. It won’t be too long before we have our 8 000 aircraft delivered. All of that is being held hugely by our introduction of the A320neo, which I will talk about in a few minutes. And we are very excited we have our first delivery for Russian airline very soon.

At the moment, on the A320 there are 4 factories around the world: Toulouse, Hamburg, Tianjin (China) and now Alabama (the USA). We are producing roughly 50 aircrafts every month. Pretty impressive. In the upcoming 2018 in a year from now we will be able to produce 60 aircrafts per month. Very high level of production but still amazing demand for the aircraft.

We are proud that S7 will become the first operator in Russia of the A320neo. There comes a choice of engines Pratt&Whitney or CFM. S7 will be taking Pratt&Whitney for the aircraft. That’s important for us and we are very pleased to welcome them as a launch operator of the aircraft in Russia.

In terms of all the advances of A320neo family compared to the base A320, we worked hard on the aerodynamics. We worked really hard on the cabin. It has to be said that the huge amount of the advantages of the aircraft also comes with the engines. We wanted to keep it as common as with the today’s existing A320 family. The operators of the A320neo are reporting of 15-16% of fuel saving comparing to the previous generation of the A320. So all kinds of great economical advantages are in the aircraft along with the fuel burn, much lower noise. We are also pleased to show you some advances in the cabin. If there’s one thing we’ve always thought in Airbus we can always work to improve how the aircraft is for the passengers inside. With, what we call, our new airspace cabin is coming for the A320 family will have the largest overhead bins that have been on the aircraft of this category. Really the impression of getting on our A320 of the future will be like really getting into a wide-body aircraft. We think, for the passengers around the world we have a further evolution in the competence of the A320 family.

I will mention a few words on the larger version A321. We have A321neo sold with a huge amount of this aircraft of the seating pretty close to 240 seats. And we have low cost airlines in Europe like Wizz and easyjet who operate the aircraft with 235-236 seats. For those who asks what is your view on the middle market of the aircraft: this is the middle market aircraft. We already have it there. And I think further we will be introducing later this year the A321 long range. The A321 long range will have extra fuel tanks. The aircraft will comfortably fly from Moscow to Beijing or maybe fly from St-Petersburg to Boston. Highly efficient aircraft will give the airlines all kinds of new opportunities to do new routes efficiently as well.

To close off with the A320 family, I talked about the fuel burn that is healthy on the aircraft, the new cabin. And I think we are seeing our competitor doing everything they can to try and catch up but in that range A319, A320, A321neo we’ve got the right family spacing. We’ve got the right efficiencies, passenger comfort. Really got into the market’s needs in this category.

Now we are moving on to the A330. We are really glad to have 4 airlines in Russia operating A330. This is a program that has come sensationally well for us. It’s a very well-setting wide-body aircraft by the airline’s reference. I think what’s exciting for us, that we are now moving from today’s A330 to announce the next step which is the A330neo.  With the A330neo compared to today’s A330, like with the A320neo, we are taking advantage of the latest engine technology. We are having the new engine from Rolls-Royce on the aircraft. Our first two engines of A330neo are now arriving to Toulouse. These engines combined with all kinds of aerodynamic improvements particularly related to the wing and also a bit of work we’ve done in the cabin as well compared to the airlines’ savings on the count of A330 of around 14 to 15%. Actually, we are in a category to offer the most economy well-priced wide-body there is in the market place. We are pleased so far with A330 sales.

One of the operators on this job are the Delta Airlines in the USA. They made the decision that I think we fully understood. They bought A350-900 and the A330-900 (this is the A330neo). A330 is a bit smaller than the A350 but as Delta said to everybody: «the A330 is an aircraft of the Transatlantic and the A350 is an aircraft for the Transpacific». So if you really need the range and the capability you go with the A350, slightly shorter routes with the maximum economic benefit you go with the A330. We, in fact, see many airlines asking for A350 and A330neo. They go perfectly together.

We’ve also had a lot of work in the cabin on the A330neo. We also call this the airspace that is all about riding the maximum possible perception of space in a really wide cabin and comfort that we can possibly do. And Airbus is always at all times is saying to focus on customer comfort. We still have the widest economy seats in the A330 aircraft and we are continuing this in the A330neo. With the work we’ve done in the cabin probably we are able to run an additional 6 to 10 seats compared to the current A330. The aircraft will come in 2 sizes: the A330-800 and A330-900. And those just reflect what we’re doing today with the A330-200 and the A330-300 which are both flown here in Russia.

We are going to A350. We are very pleased to announce that the Aeroflot is the major A350 customer and some of you have seen the latest Aeroflot announcement of the expand of fleet yet further. We firmly believe that this aircraft will become the core of the Aeroflot long-haul fleet. We are heading into the future with a potential of many more aircrafts. 40 we sold today. So far, on the A350 program we sold almost 850, we delivered 94 in June from yesterday we’re up to 97. But there are a lot of A350s to be delivered.

As you can see from the map, A350s are really flying everywhere around the world right now. What’s so special about A350? Why do we bring it to MAKS? It is on the edge of all the technology we can bring into the market. We have a composite fuselage that held on a big scale in terms of weight savings. I will add that 14% of the weight of A350 is in titanium. Obviously we have VSMPO supplying over 50% of all the titanium to the Airbus. So, about the aircraft out there the fair proportion is Russian content. We’ve done a lot with the aerodynamics, particularly with the sharklets. We’ve got fabulously efficient engine. And I think what we’re happiest with the A350 is despite all this new technology all coming together. The engines really behaved extremely well since the aircraft went into service and the reliability around the world is about 99% right now. That’s an impressive number.

Our highlight for this year will be the longer A350 series 1000. We have the A350-1000 in flight right now in Toulouse. We have 3 aircrafts flying and will be delivering first aircraft with 40 to 50 seats more than in the A350-900 to Qatar Airways later this year. We are building up with the final testing right now and the aircraft will be in service by the end of the year. There is one important message, this is not us just giving some marketing talk. This is a program in service. This aircraft is saving airlines 25% in terms of operating costs and fuel compared to previous generation aircraft.

I’ll finish off with the A380. We sold over 300, we delivered over 200. Amazing to think that over 200 A380s are flying around the world. We’ll see how we go but we’re certainly hopeful about some very good sales of the A380. A380 is firmly established around the world.You probably know that the aircraft comes to Moscow with Emirates. And despite years ago with people saying it has to be a special airport for the A380 and access to the airport, we really see the A380 going well. It is going very well in all kinds of destinations we would have never imagined for the aircraft 10 years ago.

We would like to point out that you have a very busy airport. This is where A380 makes perfect sense. I think there is no better example for that than Heathrow in London where we have access for 50 A380 departures and landings everyday. London is one of those typical markets where A380 makes perfect sense, where you need to put many passengers in one flight.

We’ve also been doing a lot of work on how to enhance the A380, make it even look better than the way it is. So a lot of that work has been focused on the cabin and to redesign the cabin: minimum of the 50 as medium and we were going up to 80 extra seats, we were looking at the stairs. A380 was considered to be fully luxurious, entering the service we realised there is a lot of room that can still be used for more passengers. That’s gonna help with the economics. We’re also looking in a little bit of work with aerodynamics, the winglets which we’ve shown on a Paris Airshow. All of this we are working with some of our customers right now to find how can A380plus work for them. So this, if you like, is the next step in the A380 program. Some of the plusses in terms of savings, one of the innovations will bring, is expanding the seat in the economy class. It is going from 10 to 11 inches across while still providing all the comfort with the seat that still 10 inches wide. We’ve done a lot of work in the cabin to make this a greater aircraft.

If I can summarise everything where we are right now. On the A320 everything going very smoothly. We have bestselling reference points in the marketplace what is doing very well for us. We are looking forward to our first delivery to S7. With the A330 we have additional two operators in Russia and we are hoping for more. We are hoping to place more A330s here as well. And looking forward now to the A330neo making its first flight later this year. The A350 is going very well and soon we will have 100 deliveries, within the next 3 to 4 weeks we will be up to 100 deliveries of the A350-1000 later in the year. And as that said on the A380 with all going well. We are hoping for more exciting future ahead for us.

With that aircraft we hope you come to visit it. We are very pleased we’ve brought A350 on MAKS. I have been asked why did you bring A350 again. So just quickly to tell you: the previous aircraft just had testing equipment in the cabin, this time it has seats in the cabin. So it looks like an airliner.

Thank you very much for the patience and attention!